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Analysis warns world faces 'irrevocable overshoot' of temperature limits

newsNov 12, 2026211,095

Climate Action Tracker’s analysis finds that under current policies the planet will warm about 2.7°C above preindustrial levels by 2100, up from 2.6°C in last year’s CAT estimate. The report says breaching the 1.5°C threshold will occur within a few years and will “consign humanity to disasters they are unable to adapt to,” a phrase CAT partner Climate Analytics chief Bill Hare used to press for rapid fossil fuel phaseout. Even if all countries met their current pledges and long-term promises, CAT projects 1.9°C of warming by the end of the century. The findings were aired as most parties, minus the United States, met in Antalya for UN climate talks where UN secretary general António Guterres urged faster action. CAT lead author Sarah Heck singled out the United States, Canada and New Zealand for slowing climate action to a “staggering level.” CAT noted a few positive trends such as clean energy investment now double that in fossil fuels, rapid growth in electric vehicle use, and sharply reduced Amazon deforestation in Brazil, but said far stronger and faster emissions cuts are required to avoid the projected overshoot and associated intolerable storms, droughts, heatwaves and flooding.

Prof Bill McGuire
@profbillmcguire.bsky.social

Based on current policies, we will reach 2.7C in 2100? We have to bin this nonsense 1.5C permanently crossed in 2028, planet heating at 0.4C/decade It is no longer about policies. It is about feedbacks and the Earth's rapidly rising energy imbalance www.theguardian.com/environment/...

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