US PCE inflation jumps to 3.8% in April

PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 3.8% in April, marking its highest level in nearly three years.  Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased to 3.3%.

Overall, this morning's US data releases are broadly consistent with consensus forecasts (please see prior post), featuring slightly cooler monthly PCE inflation at both the core and headline levels, stronger durable goods orders, and a downward revision to Q1 GDP. While weekly initial jobless...

The PCE price index rose +0.4% m/m in April, an annualized rate of +4.9% (down from +8.3% in March). As a result, prices are up +3.8% from a year ago, the highest level in 3 years.

Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest since November 2023 (when the Fed still had a tightening bias). The 6-month annualized rate would rise to 3.8% (highest since June 2023).

Inflation: "From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago."

PCE Inflation in the US jumped to an annualized rate of 3.8% in April. That's the highest in three years (since May 2023). Core PCE (excluding food & energy) rose to 3.3%. That's the highest since fall 2023. #EconSky

Good morning. I am expecting a 3.8% increase in the topline PCE inflation index & a 3.3% advance in the core while inflation adjusted spending will slow to 0.1%. #Econ In addition, I will appear on @CNNConnect with @BeckyCNN at 9:30AM ET/14:30 PM GMT to discuss the day in global financial markets.

US #Inflation pressures firming on #MiddleEast shock (& lingering #tariffs) 📆April 2026 🟠Headline PCE prices: +0.40% m/m 🟠Core PCE prices: +0.24% m/m 🎯Inflation moving away from #Fed 2% target 🔺Headline PCE inflation: 3.8% (+0.3pt) 🔺Core PCE inflation: 3.3% (+0.1pt)

Biden had handed Trump PCE inflation that was heading toward 2%. Then came Trump’s tariffs & the catastrophic Iran war that shut the Strait of Hormuz. April PCE inflation is at 3.8%, the highest since May 2023. Core PCE is at 3.3%. The personal savings rate plunged from 5.5% in April 2025 to 2.6% ⬇️

- Emerging markets dump U.S. treasuries at record speed ($86M in March) - 13.1% of U.S. credit card balances are now 90+ days delinquent—highest since 2011 - The Fed’s preferred inflation metric (PCE inflation) rose to 3.8% in April; Core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%—both highest since 2023

PCE (APRIL) MoM: +0.4% | YoY: +3.8% Core PCE (APRIL) MoM: +0.2% | YoY: +3.3% Savings Rate (APRIL) 2.6%

Both PCE and PCE core show increasing #inflation, where everything is being driven by the #IranWar and PCE energy seeing the largest spike (18.3%) since post-COVID 2022 inflation surge. #USEconomy

April inflation Core inflation- 3.3% (excludes food & energy) PCE inflation - 3.8%* Personal Consumption Expenditures *This reflects reality

US Core PCE April: M/M 0.2% (exp 0.3%), unchanged from prior. Y/Y 3.3% (exp 3.3%), up from 3.2%. Monthly rise moderates, but annual inflation remains a concern for economic stability. #crypto #blockchain #news

⏰ PCE INFLATION DUE AT 8:30 AM ET — FED'S PREFERRED GAUGE Expected: - Headline PCE: 3.8% (would be highest since May 2023) - Core PCE: 3.3% (forecast) - Nearly double the Fed's 2% target Markets pricing ~50% odds of a Fed hike by year-end. Watch for the actual print at 8:30.