US PCE inflation 4.1% in May; core PCE 3.4%, highest since Oct 2023

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, increased to 3.4%, the highest since Oct 2023. What are trump and Republicans focused on? -Erecting a giant arch to honor trump -Putting trump’s name on 250 dollar bill -Putting trump’s face on passports November is coming.

Core PCE was 0.32% in May, on the low side of expectations but still the fourth highest monthly print in the last 12 months (3.9% annualized) The 12-month change, at 3.4%, is the highest reading since Oct. 2023. The 6-month annualized rate is above 4%.

RBADVISERS: “.. Small Biz Pricing Plans lead the Core PCE Price Index (i.e. NO ENERGY!) and pricing intentions suggest higher — not lower — core inflation lies ahead.” #NFIB

Please find below a Bloomberg table summarizing this morning's US data releases. Three considerations from my end: Monthly PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure, came in line (core) to somewhat softer (headline) than the consensus forecasts. This brought... 1 of 3

US #Inflation pressures firming on #MiddleEast shock (& lingering #tariffs) 📆May 2026 🟠Headline PCE prices: +0.45% m/m 🟠Core PCE prices: +0.32% m/m 🎯Inflation moving away from #Fed 2% target 🔺Headline PCE inflation: 4.1% (+0.3pt) 🔺Core PCE inflation: 3.4% (+0.1pt)

Good news: Both core and headline PCE inflation nailed the forecast! Bad news: The forecasts were: Headline PCE 4.1% Core PCE 3.4%

The US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in May 2026, less than market expectations of a 0.5% increase, matching the pace recorded in April. That's a rise of 4.1% y/y vs. +3.8% prior. Core PCE +3.4% vs. +3.3% prior. Goods inflation cooled, services inflation is heating up. #EconSky

US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAY) ACTUAL: 3.4% VS 3.3% PREVIOUS; EST 3.4%

PCE inflation: "the PCE price index for May increased 0.4 percent. [Core] PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. [YoY] PCE price index for May increased 4.1 percent. [YoY Core] PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from one year ago." Inflation at expectations

Yeah. These two categories do have massive deflation. But their weights are small enough that even though they fell -3% ann. and -12% ann. respectively over the last decade, they only contributed -4 bps ann. to overall core PCE.

Several economic reports out today: Core PCE inflation up 0.3%, in line with consensus, up 3.4% Y/Y Headline inflation up 0.4%, 4.1% Y/Y Personal income and spending both up 0.7% in May, above consensus. Real spending up 0.3%, up 2.1% Y/Y Unemployment claims tick down to 215K, 4wk avg is 224K

PCE (MAY) MOM: 0.4% YOY: 4.1% CORE PCE (MAY) MOM: 0.3% YOY: 3.4% SAVINGS RATE (MAY) 3.0%

Crypto Fan (https://urlz.fr/vaKy) 25/06. (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/25/bitcoin-has-a-new-line-in-the-sand-thursday-s-core-pce-could-stress-test-it) - Bitcoin has a new line in the sand. Thursday’s core PCE could stress test it.

#DOW H4: nuts! Strong DR combo from support puts the bulls back in with some chance again. GDP and Core PCE Price Index tomorrow; probably another W&S day for us and I’ll be chicken on the fence until the tea leaves become clearer. #DayTrader

US Core PCE hits 3.4% in May, meeting expectations. This is the highest since Oct 2023. #economy #inflation #PCE