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Study: climate change made Spain's wildfire weather 20x more likely

scienceJul 31, 2026291,206

A World Weather Attribution consortium analysis found human-caused warming made the hot, dry and windy weather that fuels wildfires at least 20 times more likely in Spain and at least twice as likely in France. The study compared the seven-day period with the highest daily severity ratings in each country to conditions in a world before mass fossil-fuel burning raised global temperature by about 1.4C. Scientists said a wet winter and spring boosted vegetation growth that then dried into fuel, producing so-called whiplash conditions that amplified this season’s blazes. The intense June heatwave linked to about 20,000 deaths in Europe could not have occurred without extra heat from carbon pollution, earlier WWA work found. Severe fires since early July have killed people, destroyed thousands of homes and forced more than 300,000 people to flee, while smoke raised particulate pollution peaks up to 20 times above fair air quality and spread extremely poor air quality up to 400 km away, according to French researchers. Dr Clair Barnes called the findings "extremely scary," and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre director Julie Arrighi said the events go well beyond past expectations. The study’s results underscore rising wildfire risk across Europe as warming increases winter precipitation and summer drying, and they provide quantified attribution that policymakers and emergency planners can use to reassess preparedness and response.

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