Scientists warn the current El Niño is likely to peak between October and December, coinciding with the Amazon’s end-of-dry-season when rivers are lowest and undergrowth is most tinder dry. The Guardian reports researchers expect this El Niño to be the strongest in 150 years by a “mind-blowing margin,” compounding long-term warming from fossil-fuel and land-use emissions that has already degraded large areas of the forest. Globally, the episode is already linked to record heat and wildfires in Europe, deadly floods and typhoons in Asia, and major blazes in Canada and Indonesia, while ocean temperatures trend far outside previous parameters. In the Amazon, that timing raises acute drought and fire risk for the basin and threatens the forest’s role in sustaining rainfall and irrigating crops across South America. The article notes the Amazon’s principal tributaries, including the Xingu, Negro, Tapajós, Madeira, Purus, Juruá and Japurá, feed the region’s freshwater system and will be at their lowest when El Niño peaks. Experts fear the combination of an exceptionally strong El Niño and an already stressed forest could push parts of the Amazon toward irreversible dieback, with consequences for regional water supplies and global climate stability. Policymakers, land managers and agricultural producers face heightened urgency to prepare for drought, fire and disrupted rainfall patterns this coming October to December period.
