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El Nino may peak at worst time for the Amazon, scientists warn

scienceAug 14, 202617286

Scientists warn that the current El Niño is likely to peak between October and December, the end of the Amazon’s dry season, precisely when rivers such as the Xingu, Negro, Tapajós, Madeira, Purus, Juruá and Japurá are at their lowest and undergrowth is most tinder dry. The Guardian reports researchers expect this El Niño to be the strongest in 150 years by a “mind-blowing margin,” and that its peak could arrive after a delayed rainy season, greatly increasing the risk of severe drought and large fires across the already heat-stressed basin. The warning comes amid a global wave of extreme weather tied to both the Pacific warming and long-term human-driven heating, with unprecedented heat and wildfires in Europe, record heat and typhoons in Asia, and damaging floods elsewhere. Because the Amazon helps stabilise regional climate and supplies rainfall that supports South American agriculture, an October, December El Niño-driven drought would threaten river transport, local communities, and crop irrigation across the continent. Scientists say the combination of a supercharged El Niño and an Amazon degraded by warming raises the prospect of more widespread forest dieback and a harder-to-reverse shift in the region’s climate dynamics. The timing, at the forest’s most vulnerable seasonal point, is what makes this event especially alarming for forest defenders and food producers in South America.

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