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Permafrost tipping point warning from Prof Gustaf Hugelius

scienceAug 20, 202630193

Prof Gustaf Hugelius of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research at Stockholm University warns that heatwaves and wildfires are accelerating risks of irreversible thaw across vast permafrost regions, which contain three times more carbon than all the living vegetation on Earth. When ground ice melts the surface can collapse into thermokarst lakes, wetlands or gullies, producing new hydrology that prevents the landscape from recovering for hundreds of years and locks in continued carbon emissions. Hugelius says many local tipping points have already been crossed and that the permafrost region is too large to tip all at once unless global heating reaches about 6C, but successive local thresholds will make permafrost a significant emitter by the end of the century. He estimates a loss of 200 to 300 gigatons of CO2-equivalent if warming reaches between 1.8C and 3.6C by 2100, and cautions that methane from wet thawed areas is roughly 30 times more potent than CO2 over a 10 to 15 year timescale. A major remaining uncertainty is whether thawed areas become drier, producing mostly CO2, or wetter, producing more methane; there is a multi-decade lag between atmospheric warming and permafrost response. Hugelius says there are no feasible broad geoengineering fixes and the only practical way to limit widespread thaw is rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

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