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Met Office warns strongest El Niño in a century will bring storms to UK

newsAug 21, 202621380

The UK Met Office says the El Niño developing over the Pacific is likely to be the strongest for more than a century, with Pacific sea temperatures set to rise by about 3C, making it "the largest since the 19th century," Prof Adam Scaife said. The Met Office forecasts increased rainfall and storminess for north-west Europe, including the UK, with signals strongest around November, while the same event is expected to cause severe droughts in parts of the southern hemisphere such as South America and the west Pacific. Dr Nick Dunstone said large El Niño events release more heat from ocean to atmosphere, making 2027 very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and temporarily exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels. The UK is already experiencing an acute dry spell, July was the driest in 190 years, 71.3% of England and all of Wales are in drought, and reservoirs are at 62.6% capacity, 16.3% below normal for the time of year. Forecasters and officials warned that months of sustained rainfall would be needed to fully replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater, even if autumn storms arrive, and political leaders have been told to prepare for wetter conditions following this summer's heatwave, Andy Burnham said.

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