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Super El Niño smashes temperature records months before expected peak

scienceSep 21, 202626543

The Pacific El Niño has reached a sea surface temperature anomaly of 3.05C against the 1991, 2020 baseline, exceeding the previous high of 3.02C set in November 2015, the Guardian reports. The meteorological community's preferred ONI metric, which uses a 30-year rolling average and incorporates NOAA data, sits about 0.01C below the 2015 record and is on the brink of a new peak. An average of 14 climate models assessed by Zeke Hausfather now forecast a November, December peak near 4.0C, a level Hausfather called "mind-blowing" and others described as "Godzilla-level." Scientists say this event is likely the largest in at least 1,000 years and will add extra heat to an atmosphere already warmed by fossil fuel pollution, pushing 2027 toward becoming the hottest year on record. Impacts are already visible: Indonesia is seeing record wildfires and deadly air pollution, India has had reduced monsoon rains, parts of Central America and the Caribbean face drought and Panama Canal low-water trade slowdowns, and Peru and Chile are experiencing intense rains and flooding that have disrupted access to Machu Picchu. The World Food Programme warned in August that El Niño impacts could push about 50 million people into acute hunger. Prof Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the event is a “huge redistribution of energy in the climate system” that will produce never-before-seen heat extremes with consequences for health, food security and water stress.

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