A new climate analysis projects about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally from the current super El Niño between September 2026 and February 2027. The toll is on top of early deaths already driven by the climate crisis and will be compounded by droughts, wildfires and flooding. The most affected countries in the six-month window are Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil; the United States ranks among the top 20 most affected nations with roughly 3,500 projected additional heat deaths. Researchers produced the estimate by combining peer-reviewed, month-by-month relationships between temperature and excess heat deaths across 24,378 regions with El Niño temperature forecasts, using 1996, 2025 monthly averages as the baseline. The El Niño has already pushed past the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon and has been described by scientists as "mind-blowing" and "Godzilla-level," with global heating amplifying its impact. Report co-author Prof Michael Greenstone said the figure represents parents, children and workers whose lives will be lost, and co-author Dr Tamma Carleton urged increased emergency response and deployment of measures such as better heat forecasts, cooling centres, expanded medical staffing and protections for outdoor workers. The projections end in February 2027, but researchers expect elevated heat deaths to continue through June or July 2027.
