The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health warned that malicious use of artificial intelligence and nuclear conflict could cause human extinction by 2100, ranking them top of 17 catastrophic threats to health. The commission modelled expected years of healthy life lost using disability-adjusted life years DALYs to compare risks over the next 75 years and kept only threats that also have potential solutions. The report says nuclear war could trigger global famine by injecting particles into the upper atmosphere that block sunlight, while malicious AI could enable creation of biological weapons; an accompanying Lancet editorial said realisation of those risks would inflict an apocalypse on humanity. Other threats classed as “major catastrophic” for causing more than 1 billion cumulative DALYs include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing. The commission stressed that the 17 threats interact and must be addressed together but said there is “a realistic route to act” on each, with co-chair Professor Christopher Murray urging leaders that decisions made today will shape the next generation. The report found limiting warming to about 1.8C rather than 4.4C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life lost and noted that health-loss drivers differ by region, with non-communicable diseases dominant in higher income regions and educational and development shortfalls driving loss in lower income regions.
