Skip to content

Study: Atlantic overturning circulation closer to collapse

scienceApr 16, 2026

A new peer-reviewed study finds the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Atlantic current that carries warm surface water north and returns cold deep water south, is closer to a collapse tipping point than previous assessments. The researchers used updated observational records and climate models to raise the assessed probability of a large AMOC decline this century and connect a collapse to abrupt cooling in Western Europe, reduced rainfall across the Sahel and West Africa, and shifts in Atlantic hurricane tracks. The paper says continued high greenhouse gas emissions would increase collapse risk and urges expanded ocean monitoring and rapid emissions cuts to lower the chance of those regional catastrophes.

Key Highlights

AMOC carries warm surface water north and returns cold deep water south.
Study links AMOC collapse to Western European cooling and Sahel rainfall reduction.
Authors say high greenhouse gas emissions increase collapse risk this century.
1 source