Tactical Lib Dem and Green voting credited in recent by‑election results
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with 24,927 votes to Reform UK's 15,696 and Restore's 3,111, on turnout of 59 percent versus 52.5 percent in 2024. Vote transfers show Liberal Democrat and Green second preferences flowed predominantly to Labour, widening Burnham's margin and leaving the Conservatives with a much reduced share from the 2024 general election. This tactical consolidation prioritized blocking Reform UK and Restore in a single-seat contest, which amplified Labour's advantage. If similar transfer patterns occur in marginal constituencies at a general election, coordinated centre-left preferences could decide multiple seats.
So yet again the the anti-Reform majority rallies behind the strongest opposition: that was the Greens, Plaid and now Labour. Tactical voting you beauty
Gareth Evans5The people know exactly what they don't want! What they can't figure out is how to get is a system that delivers for most!
Dave Bromage2Reform candidates falter under the slightest scrutiny. Works well in by-elections - trickier during a general election. But I’m feeling more optimistic their 30% ceiling won’t become a Commons majority. That Goodwin & Kenyon were seen by Reform as the best they had to offer is hilarious/depressing.
Andy Burnham wins Makerfield By election and pretty comfortably 24,927 votes v ReFuk’s 15,696 votes &Restore’s 3111 and on a higher turn out than in 2024 (59% v 52.5%) Looks as if the Green and Lib Dem vote went to Labour and the Tories absolutely cratered v2024. www.ft.com/content/44e1...
Fionna O’Leary24With 55% of the vote Labour still had >10% more votes than ReFuk and Restore &Tories combined (43.5%) and this in a seat where ReFuk pretty much cleared the decks just a couple of months ago in LE2026 The combined total for Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens was 56%.
RR6So glad the litmus paper is out of the jar. I guess bots don’t get to actually vote.
Francesc 🇪🇸🇳🇱🇵🇱🇬🇧🇪🇺3Thanks for this, Fiona. A good overview for those (like me) who live abroad.
Simon Pease2It is a good result for Burnham personally and gives him a good “platform” for the leadership challenge. I hope those in the party around Starmer advise him to go gracefully. Completely agree about the dark underbelly, but this is apparent in many countries now. They can and must be beaten.
It's more than that, because tactical voting might indeed be replicable. But Labour in Makerfield had the "King of the North" running as an insurgent against the leadership of his own party, while the Cons in Aberdeen could run an anti-Net-Zero campaign in an oil constituency. So both quite unusual.
Simon Pease5Yes it is of course more than that, and the Burnham factor is important. It’s the replicable part that makes TV worth identifying.
redneeraj.bsky.social4I find the tactical voting worrisome. If every election becomes an existential battle against fascists. All the other politicians need to be is the least worst option, and then our politics becomes very reductive.
M.J. Ferguson2Instantly recall to mind the Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election the Tories held on the back of anti-ULEZ sentiment - a constituency-specific issue/backdrop/campaign filter. Voters holding their noses (and somewhat ignoring/looking past the party description) can be a powerful thing.
