Oil prices fall as US Iran talks show progress

“.. Oil prices are no longer the dominant factor driving US Treasury yields, with the correlation between the two breaking down. US 2-year yields have reached the highest levels since February 2025, even while crude continues to decline.” @bloomberg.com

Find someone who believes in you like oil markets believe in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, oil prices really are falling because the financial system still reflexively believes the US President can be trusted Thanks to decades of prosperity, these coked-out financiers apparently don't get that when you run out of a thing, line go up stops mattering

‘Since at least 1970, the primary fallout for the stock market from any major oil price spike generally begins “once oil prices peak” – that is, once the Trumpets sound!’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/stock-mark... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social

BREAKING: oil prices give up gains, swing to loss... WTI down 27 cents, Brent down $1.27/bbl "U.S. and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal" (CNBC)

Inflation busts thru the Bank of Canada's target range, now 3.2% (from 1.8% in Feb), with early signs petroleum prices are spilling over into other prices (CPI excl. gasoline rose to 2.2%). Nothing to do with supply, demand, or output costs in Canada. 100% due to war and oil. /2

The sense among observers I speak to is that the Los weekend's US-Iran talks in Switzerland were productive, reflecting a mutual desire for agreement. If successful, and it remains an if, this would lead to another leg down in oil prices (CNBC chart below). ... 1 of 2

The U.S. Treasury has issued a 60-day license allowing the production, shipment, and sale of Iranian oil. If more of it reaches the market, prices will fall – cutting into Russia’s oil revenues.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran to continue talks for the rest of the week.

Collapse related: “Southeast Asia will likely face a food-supply shock, as food becomes more expensive on higher oil and fertilizer prices caused by the Middle East conflict as well as exposure to the effects of a potential strong El Niño event in late 2026, according to a report by Goldman Sachs”

The first round of talks between US and Iranian officials in Switzerland has ended, after a tense opening marked by Tehran's announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz and US President Donald Trump repeating his threats to resume attacks on Iran

So it's endless war or an oil glut and low prices I guess. I recall during the last oil wars that there were lots of signs that said, "Drill a well, bring a soldier home." Perhaps we should popularize: "Drive an EV, bring a soldier home."

Year over year inflation spikes to 3.2% in Canada, driven by oil prices (as after the re-opening of economies after pandemic closures, and then Russia's attack on Ukraine). Monetary policy is effective when inflation is demand driven, but not when there are commodity supply shocks.

The administration worked to convince markets that the war was only a brief disruption for oil prices. But Brent crude rose above eighty one dollars a barrel, and at American gas stations, the average gallon cost three dollars and ninety four

Lindsey Graham on Sunday: if the Iran talks fail, the US will seize the Strait of Hormuz, by force and try to toll it. We’re trying to toll a waterway we do not control, during a war we’re losing. Virginia, meanwhile, spent three months deciding whether to charge Amazon for the power it burns here.