Final polls show a Blue surge in key Senate battlegrounds

politicsNov 1, 2026401,581

The final New York Times/Siena University polls show Democrats leading in all seven pivotal Senate battlegrounds that will decide control of the chamber. The Times noted Democrats improved in six of the seven states since September, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, and lost ground only in Alaska. Those gains include double-digit swings in some gubernatorial and Senate matchups reported alongside the Senate polling, such as Abdul El‑Sayed leading in Michigan in the Times/Siena survey. In South Carolina, public and internal polls show Republican Darline Graham tied with or trailing Democratic Dr. Annie Andrews; Graham raised less than $600,000 in early October while Andrews raised $4.5 million and won endorsements from some prominent state Republicans, including former Gov. David Beasley. The Times/Siena results are the last major pre‑Election Day surveys and, if they hold, would put Democrats in position to win enough seats to take Senate control. Analysts and some campaign operatives noted the polls tightened races that had long been considered safe for Republicans, making turnout and last‑minute undecided voters decisive on Election Day. The immediate next step is Election Day voting, where these final margins will be tested and could determine which party holds the Senate majority.

Bill Grueskin

@bgrueskin.bsky.social

So tonight’s NYT poll has El-Sayed up by 11 points. Gift link below

THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA POLL
OCT. 23-NOV. 1
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?
53% El-Sayed
Michigan
42% Rogers
50 Talarico
Texas
43 Paxton
51 Jackson
Maine
45 Collins
49 Brown
Ohio
44 Husted
49 Hamilton
Kansas
44 Marshall
Alaska
lowa
48 Peltola
46 Sullivan
48 Turek
47 Hinson
MARGIN OF ERROR
46
50
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent the margin of error.
Based on New York Times/Siena polls of 610 voters in Alaska, 705 voters in Iowa, 736 voters in Kansas, 714 voters in Maine, 1,011 voters in Michigan, 717 voters in Ohio and 1,215 voters in Texas. Question
wording has been condensed lillian Vordick / The New York Times.

2603h ago

Steve Smith10

Some of this poll was taken before Obama attacked Cheesecake Factory, so I don't how we can take it seriously.

Groove Merchant4

Appreciate it but forget the polls. Get out and effing VOTE.

Desert Mage1

With North Carolina, that's seven flipped seats if these numbers hold.

Stevie Hate1

No wonder Pelosi et al felt empowered enough to talk that smack. They're backpedaling fast Thanks to Stevens.

EARNED MY SPURS & UNABLE TO CURB MY CUSSING 🐎1

I love it when a campaign implodes itself.

Quoting this

@NewsJennifer (Jennifer Schulze)45

These are eye popping results especially in Michigan. But polls aren’t votes. Run through the tape.

Scott2

Thank you for your noble sacrifice, Haley Stevens

Brad Reed2

I don't think he's up by that much. But I also think that Haley Stevens' idiocy ain't going to hurt him one bit.

Andy Pearlman

@apearlma.bsky.social

nyt polls are much stronger if they take out their new reweighing...

2083h ago

Scott Horton

@robertscotthorton.bsky.social

The final NYT/Siena poll shows steady gains for the Democrats across the country.

1203h ago

Señor Sabelotodo5

Polls don't win elections but voting can do the trick. (Along with getting out the vote!)

Sathir.R3

Forget the polls. GO VOTE

th1ngsfallapart.bsky.social2

Polling results are not gains. Wait for the vote.

StayingCovidSafe1

If the GOP somehow “ wins” all of these seats, demand a true investigation. Statistically, impossible just like winning all 7 swing states.

Glubdub1

Don't believe polls, go vote. If you voted, help get out the vote and help others with ballot props. Zoom Phone Banks to Flip the House CA, VA & AZ & OH, NC & GA to Flip the Senate www.mobilize.us/call4change/...

bluesmominohio.bsky.social1

I hate this. I see a post like this and I start hyperventilating. I’ve been here before. And I know that this time the stars have aligned to make it truly possible that this time - this time! - things really might change. For the good. For our good. For the country. I’m just so freaking anxious.

Quoting this

Screamer Jim30

After all of that, AES in position to potentially be the strongest swing state candidate of the cycle

Harry Litman

@harrylitman.bsky.social

Dems up 5 in Ohio?! 7 in Texas?! 6 in Maine?! 5 in Kansas?!?! be still, my beating heart. www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/u...

921h ago

Matt Ortega7

I want such a wipeout for Republicans that nobody is left, not even a witness.

intolerantcentrist.bsky.social1

I’ll feel better if these numbers hold till Wednesday.

Adam Gurri

@adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com

God these final polls are killing me with hope, just let me get 48-72 more hours without seeing another poll

1053h ago

Adam Gurri32

Sobbing, crying, throwing up at all this optimism bsky.app/profile/apea...

Richard M. Nixon

@dicknixon.bsky.social

The final polls are in line with what we’ve said for weeks.

982h ago

Guachi4

The latest NYT polls might be wrong but they do all seem directionally correct from what you'd expect. That gives Ds 54 seats if they win them all. So close, though, that a few points either way and it's 51 or 56.

artbykgh.bsky.social3

You always knew politics pretty well 😏

Chris Bellomy2

Late deciders always break to the opposition, correct?

tflatley.bsky.social1

Indeed sir “the election was over the day he was nominated.”

Peter Baker

@peterbakernyt.bsky.social

Democrats lead across the board in final midterm election polls by @nytimes @SienaResearch El Sayed +11 Talarico +7 Jackson +6 Brown +5 Hamilton +5 Peltola +2 Turek +1 @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social @ruthigielnik.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/u...

682h ago

Marv Beatty2

They may win none: so vote.

carljungfranz.bsky.social1

Enantiodromia is a psychological principle popularized by Carl Jung. Jung defined it as "the emergence of the unconscious opposite in the course of time," a process where an extreme, one-sided mental or cultural position eventually transforms into its direct opposite to restore internal balance.

Quoting this

carljungfranz.bsky.social10

maria_from_ga

@mariafromga.bsky.social

Story of the Day was how the final Souls to the Polls was a smashing success from Broward (D+22.4) to Tallahassee (D+35.4) to Gadsen (D+66.9) Black voters turned out in droves today to vote in-person and the post-church turnout surge is clear to see

542h ago

Purple Teacher

@peaceandteachin.bsky.social

Ramaswamy thought his ad would be a game changer in his race for governor of Ohio. It was - for Acton. Polls show that anyone who has seen or heard of the ad are more likely to vote for Acton by a 2-1 margin. #VoteBlueToSaveDemocracy #ProudBlue#Voices4Victory #OneV1 apple.news/ATFkjY_QNToa...

412h ago

Thomas HD

@degolierthomas.bsky.social

My reaction to the last NYTimes Siena poll of Texas

453h ago

Hyde T. Voltyge

@hydevoltyge.bsky.social

It's time. Florida partisan margin is R+2.48 now, that is really bad for the GOP (independents will crush them, now they'll need an enormous EDay) FL-GOV: Tossup -> Tilt D FL-SEN: Tossup -> Tilt D KS-GOV: Tossup -> Tilt D ^ Siena poll My remaining Tossups: SC-SEN, VT-GOV (goal is no Tossups)

451h ago

pleonasm.2

Good to see you finally agree! The water's fine, come on in

lbstars.bsky.social1

I mean it’s a cherry on top. 🤷‍♂️

Clara Jeffery

@clarajeffery.bsky.social

New/last Times/Sienna poll, which is the undisputed best, has Dems up in the key battleground races www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/u...

463h ago

Peter Principle3

"In Texas, 49 percent of likely voters view Mr. Talarico favorably, while 39 percent view him unfavorably, giving him a 10-point-edge on favorability despite an enormous, very negative ad campaign against him funded chiefly by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person." Shoot. It. In. My. Veins.

Nancy Roth2

Thanks for the gift link!🎁

Leah McElrath

@leahmcelrath.bsky.social

Final NYT/Siena senate poll just dropped. (Gift link to article: www.nytimes.com/2026/11/01/u...)

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?
53% El-Sayed
Michigan
42% Rogers
50 Talarico
Texas
43 Paxton
51 Jackson
Maine
45 Collins
49 Brown
Ohio
44 Husted
49 Hamilton
Kansas
44 Marshall
48 Peltola
Alaska
46 Sullivan
48 Turek
lowa
47 Hinson
MARGIN OF ERROR
46
50
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent the margin of error.
54

413h ago

The Wall Street Journal

@wsj.com

Public and internal polls show Darline Graham tied with, or trailing, her Democratic rival, Dr. Annie Andrews, making South Carolina competitive in a way it hasn’t been for decades. Read more: on.wsj.com/4yR9Ur1

342h ago

Green Hombre6

Clever how Trump put a candidate with a familiar last name on the ticket to try to trick voters into voting for someone unqualified for the job. Should be illegal, right?

Mina1

What about the Trump coattails?

Mash1

Graham will lose. It will give her a much needed break so she can learn what foreign policy is.

1-940.bsky.social1

After she loses she should replace RFK Jr

SlavaUkraini033

@slavaukraini033.bsky.social

NYT/Siena poll | 10/27-11/1 LV Texas Governor 2026 🟦Gina Hinojosa 48% 🟥Greg Abbott 47% (incumbent) Link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... 2 days to go. Vote!

363h ago

3 sources

nytimes.comThe Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?wsj.comInside the Final Days of Darline Graham’s Reluctant Senate Run politicalwire.comThe Final Polls Show a Blue Surge

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Final polls show a Blue surge in key Senate battlegrounds

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